Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $117,00 as of press time, up 3.3% over the past 24 hours, driven by a weakening US dollar amid a government shutdown.
Unsettled investors are inclined toward a more dovish rate path, which led BTC to reclaim $114,000 and continue climbing as an “instability hedge” bid that often appears when uncertainty collides with softer real-yield expectations.
As Glassnode reported on Oct. 1, reclaiming the $114,000 threshold was enough to trigger cascading liquidations on short positions. This fueled further upside for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s performance pulled major cap altcoins up as well, with Ethereum climbing to over $4,300, up 3.9%, while BNB was trading above $1,020, up 1.4% over the past day.
XRP traded at $2.92, a 2.9% daily increase, and Cardano reached $0.8381 with a 3.8% climb. Solana touched $218.20 with a 4.6% upward movement, and Dogecoin traded at $0.2444, securing a 5% price increase.
Macro tailwinds
Private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the biggest drop in roughly two and a half years, just as the shutdown threatens to delay official labor data.
With market data blind to key releases, traders leaned harder on proxies, nudging rate-cut odds higher and clearing the runway for a crypto bounce. Odds on Polymarket for a 25 basis point cut on the interest rate this month surpassed 90% for the first time on Oct. 1.
Reuters flagged the weak Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report and the growing reliance on private data amid government series in limbo.
Positioning and flows helped the move stick. Glassnode noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs finished September with a 3,200 BTC inflow on Sept. 30.
‘Uptober’
Additionally, the “Uptober” narrative helps. October has historically been a seasonally strong month for BTC. Liquidity is also thinner than usual this week because of Asia’s Golden Week, a recurring pattern that makes order books easier to push once momentum flips.
ETF demand, a supportive calendar, and light books are the catalysts that enable a modest macro surprise to travel farther in price.
What turns a pop into a path is still the same trio: the dollar and real yields, the duration of Washington’s data blackout, and whether ETF demand persists once holiday-thinned liquidity fills back in.
If the dollar stays on the back foot and cut odds hold up, dip-buyers usually continue to show. If proxies sour or shut down, the current rally can give back ground just as quickly. For now, the balance of forces favors variance.
The Oct.1 leg-up is a combination of a macro nudge from weaker jobs data and a softer dollar, a seasonal bid into “Uptober,” and a squeeze that cleared out shorts once the spot price breached $114,000.
