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Sir Keir Starmer is under growing pressure to revive Labour’s fortunes after suffering a seismic by-election defeat in the traditional Welsh stronghold of Caerphilly for the first time in a century.
Figures in the party ranging from the leader of the Welsh government to Starmer’s internal critics called for a big shift in government strategy in response to the result in the Welsh Senedd assembly seat, which was won easily by left-leaning nationalist party Plaid Cymru, leaving Labour trailing behind in third place.
The drubbing came the day before a result in Labour’s deputy leadership election which Starmer’s allies fear will be won by Lucy Powell, who was sacked from his cabinet last month and could prove to be a thorn in his side.
Baroness Eluned Morgan, Labour’s first minister in Wales, tried to offload responsibility for the disastrous result to Downing Street. “This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally,” she said. “The need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.”
Mainstream, a Labour group linked to Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham — who was recently mooted as a leadership rival to Starmer — claimed the party required a “major reset” at Westminster to avoid being “wiped out in Wales” next May.
“Time is short. We promised the British people a decade of national renewal. Their patience is wearing thin, and their faith in Labour is slipping away,” the group said in a statement.
Starmer’s chancellor Rachel Reeves is also risking a backlash from Labour MPs by considering a rise in income tax in the autumn Budget, although this could be offset for workers by a cut in national insurance. Labour figures said it was one of the options on the table, although no decisions have been taken.
The result highlights how Labour is exposed on its left flank after tacking to the right on issues including immigration and crime to try to counter the rise of Reform UK and comes ahead of broader regional and local elections across the UK in May.
Labour had represented Caerphilly in South Wales for a century at Westminster and for more than 25 years — since devolution began — at the Senedd.
Plaid Cymru picked up 47 per cent of the vote, compared with 36 per cent for Reform UK and 11 per cent for Labour — with the Tories on just 2 per cent.
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Speaking on Friday, Starmer said he was “deeply disappointed” by the loss, adding: “Clearly we need to reflect and regroup and double down on the delivery in Wales. We clearly need to do much more.”
Labour’s popularity in Wales has nosedived since former first minister Vaughan Gething stepped down last year after a scandal involving donations.
The failure of Reform to seize the seat came as some relief to Labour, as Nigel Farage’s rightwing populist party maintains a double-digit lead over Starmer’s party in national opinion polls.
Farage had visited the constituency three times during the campaign and a poll last week had suggested his party was ahead of Plaid Cymru.
Zia Yusuf, Reform’s head of policy, said the result reflected a “historic realignment in Welsh and British politics.”
Plaid Cymru won its 13th Senedd member after a surge in tactical voting, with record Welsh assembly by-election turnout of 50.4 per cent. Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid, said there had been an element of voters “wanting to stop Reform”.
The defeat for Labour means the party has lost its effective majority in the Senedd, which it has previously sustained with the support of the assembly’s sole Liberal Democrat member.
