Bitcoin has ripped about 13% this week, surging Friday to just shy of a new record of $124,500.
With that ceiling nearly cleared, a quick move to $135,000 could be in the cards, according to Standard Chartered head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick.
In a note published on Friday, Kendrick argued that the U.S. government shutdown is playing a bigger role in markets than in past episodes supporting bitcoin’s rally. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, BTC traded in a different context. Now, the largest crypto has been closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured by the U.S. Treasury term premiums, a relationship that suggests the uncertainty around the shutdown acts as a bullish driver this time.
Bitcoin’s price vs. U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium (Standard Chartered)
Traders on prediction marketplace Polymarket currently give more than a 60% chance that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days. Kendrick forecasted BTC will continue to rise throughout that period.
Kendrick also highlighted a coming shift in ETF investor behavior. While gold ETFs have recently outperformed their BTC counterparts with gold pushing to record prices, spot bitcoin ETF flows are poised to catch up providing tailwind for the asset, the report said.
Of the $58 billion in net BTC ETF inflows so far, $23 billion has come in 2025, he said. This week alone, they attracted over $2.25 billion without the Friday session.
Kendrick projected that the vehicles could pull in another $20 billion investor capital by year-end – enough to keep his $200,000 year-end BTC price target in play.
