Key takeaways:
Wall Street’s year-end Bitcoin forecasts range from $133,000 to as high as $200,000.
Most agree that persistent Bitcoin ETF inflows and gold correlation may shoot BTC to new record highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced by over 13% in the past seven days and is inching toward its record high of $124,500.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin is poised to reach new record levels by the end of 2025, according to top Wall Street and UK financial institutions.
Citigroup sees BTC reaching $133,000
Citigroup expects Bitcoin to end 2025 at around $133,000, setting a new record high. That implies a relatively modest 8.75% upside from current price levels at around $122,350.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The banking giant’s base case projects steady growth supported by robust inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury allocations, which it sees as the key structural drivers of Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
As of Saturday, all US-based Bitcoin ETFs were managing over $163.50 billion in BTC. Citi estimates that fresh ETF inflows will be about $7.5 billion by year-end, helping to sustain demand.
BTC US spot ETF balances. Source: Glassnode
However, Citi’s bear case puts Bitcoin as low as $83,000 if recessionary pressures intensify and risk sentiment fades.
JPMorgan analysts: Bitcoin to $165,000 in 2025
Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for volatility, according to a team of JPMorgan Chase strategists led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now absorbs about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold, they wrote in the latest report published on Wednesday.
Bitcoin and gold’s volume-adjusted comparison. Source: JPMorgan Chase
Based on this ratio, Bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to climb by roughly 42%, implying a theoretical BTC price of around $165,000, to match the estimated $6 trillion in private gold holdings across ETFs, bars, and coins.
Gold, often viewed as Bitcoin’s traditional macro counterpart, is up roughly 48% year-to-date, putting it on track for its best annual performance since 1979.
XAU/USD yearly performance chart. Source: TradingView
However, the yearly relative strength index (RSI) for the XAU/USD pair has climbed to nearly 89, its most overbought reading since 2012.
This is a level that historically preceded deep, multiyear corrections of 40–60%. Therefore, gold’s uptrend may lose steam in the coming weeks.
Related: Bitcoin’s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K
Meanwhile, BTC has shown an 8-week lagging correlation with gold in recent years, further reinforcing JPMorgan’s outlook for a year-end Bitcoin rally if capital rotates from the precious metal.
Source: X
JPMorgan’s bullish outlook also assumes a steady stream of spot ETF inflows as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.
Standard Chartered leads with a bold $200,000 call
Standard Chartered remains the most optimistic among major banks, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December.
Like Citigroup and JPMorgan, the bank’s analysts cite sustained ETF inflows—averaging over $500 million per week—as a key driver that could lift Bitcoin’s total market capitalization closer to $4 trillion.
US Bitcoin ETF Weekly Net Flows Chart. Source: Glassnode
Growing institutional adoption, alongside a weakening US dollar and improving global liquidity conditions, could set the stage for another parabolic move similar to Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run, the analysts explain.
US Dollar Index vs. BTC/USD: Weekly Performance Comparison Chart. Source: TradingView
Standard Chartered’s analysts frame the $200,000 scenario as a “structural uptrend” rather than a short-term speculative rally.
VanEck sees Bitcoin climbing to $180,000 in 2025
Asset manager VanEck projects that Bitcoin could reach around $180,000 by 2025, citing post-halving cycle dynamics.
The firm argues that the April 2024 halving has set the stage for a supply squeeze, with ETF demand and digital asset treasuries providing the structural fuel for the next leg of the upward trend.
Bitcoin’s performance since the halving is once again mirroring previous four-year cycles, as shown in the chart below.
Bitcoin price performance since halving. Source: Glassnode
Historically, Bitcoin has reached its cycle peaks between 365 and 550 days after a halving. As of Saturday, it has been 533 days since the halving, placing it firmly within the historical window for big rallies.
Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of APAC, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s cycle could extend beyond that range, noting that its four-year rhythm is “driven more by human emotion than pure math” and will “very likely continue in some form” into 2026.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
